Federal Election result poses major headaches for South Australia Labor Party

ADELAIDE voters have taken baseball bats to federal Labor and put the party's last mainland state government on notice ahead of a final showdown looming in March.

A Labor Party that had control of every state, and the federal government, in 2007 now faces a wipe-out within six months as South Australia and Tasmania head to the polls on March 15.

Premier Jay Weatherill and his ministers are clearly fighting against the tide. Labor's brand is on the nose across the country, including SA, and Mr Weatherill is hauling behind him all the baggage accumulated after 12 years in government.

Some of the more optimistic Labor insiders hope the battering voters gave to former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's government has got most of the anger off their chest. "People do differentiate between the two levels of government and there's different issues in play,  " one senior Labor source said. "There's also the Abbott factor. He's got six months to make mistakes and people might want to keep us here as a barrier against his total domination."

Labor hopes looming battles over the car industry and defence will play in their favour. Within days, car-maker Holden is expected to renew negotiations with the Coalition over a rescue package it has to take to a Detroit for a decisive board meeting later this month.

So far, incoming Prime Minister Tony Abbott has shown no sign of blinking on plans to cut $500 million in support to the car industry. That could well lead to talk of closure at Elizabeth and Labor warnings that the state would fail if left to the whims of the free market.

The Coalition will also begin drafting a new defence white paper that will create uncertainty around the details of plans for a new submarine fleet to be built in Adelaide. But as Labor crosses its fingers and hopes for double-faults, it has more pressing concerns. The people Labor needs to get behind it in March abandoned it on Saturday. Winning them back, when polls for the past four years have indicated a mood for change, will be a tough task.

In just six months, Labor has to turn the Titanic around.

Much of the Liberal success at Saturday's federal election was built on swings in areas that threaten to be decisive in the state election. SA Labor holds 11 state seats on margins of less than 5 per cent and can afford to lose only two if it is to maintain a governing majority.

The SA Liberals must win six seats to govern in their own right and on Saturday claimed support from classic suburban swinging voters that decide elections. Mortgage belt "Howard battler" areas in Adelaide's northeast and southern suburbs moved toward the Liberals, as did the aspirational families of the increasingly affluent inner-west. It places a swag of state Labor seats including Colton, Elder, Hartley and Bright in peril.

State Labor has also lost its Teflon touch and will have a growing number of spotfires to deal with in coming months. It is weighed down by complaints about growing water and power bills while also facing a new assault on the credibility of its leader.

The running political sore of the Debelle Inquiry will be revisited as State Parliament plans a new inquiry into issues surrounding the handling of a school sex abuse case. Every time Mr Weatherill's name is linked to the cloud of confusion, frustration and incompetence hanging around the case, his personal brand is slightly weakened.

The remarkable Senate result that looks likely to turf out Labor Right faction powerbroker Don Farrell from his seat also threatens to distract the Government from the main game.

Temperatures are boiling in Labor's dominant Right faction. Any public displays of disunity could see SA Labor careen down the rocky track their federal colleagues crashed on. Labor plans this week to begin preselecting candidates in key seats including Elder and Adelaide in a rushed bid to catch up to established Liberal campaigns.

SA Liberal Leader Steven Marshall on the other hand could do worse than follow the campaign example set by Mr Abbott. Staying disciplined and riding the wave may get him home.

When people are prepared to change the government, one of the few things stops them is a sense that the Opposition isn't up to the job. So far, Mr Marshall has resisted goading to release sensitive policies that the Government could tear apart and use to discredit him. His key task for the next six months is to lift his personal profile. However, pressure will also build for him to shift from highlighting government failures to shaping a compelling alternative.

The pendulum of Australian political history is swinging back toward the Liberals.

Voters are smart enough to tell the difference between state and federal politics and vote accordingly, but the wind today blows in the direction of change.

STATE POLITICAL EDITOR DANIEL WILLS 

THE ADVERTISER SEPTEMBER 08, 2013